Index Movement
The stock markets witnessed a rising trend
in December 1998 with the market indices including the broad based ones
showing an uptrend (figures). The BSE Sensex which opened at 2803.73 on
December 1, 1998, closed at 3055.41 on December 31, 1998 recording a rise
of 9.1 per cent, or an increase of 251.7 points, whereas BSE 100 during
the same period firmed up by 8.47 per cent. The Sensex reached the high
at 3110.33 on December 30, 1998 and the lowest at 2804.03 at close of December
1, 1998.
The major indices at NSEIL also showed wide
variations during the month. The S&P CNX Nifty reached a high at 899.95
on December 30, 1998 and low at 816.65 on December 1, 1998, showing a variation
of 83 points. The CNX Junior Nifty registered a high at 1535 on close of
December 30, 1998 and a low at 1376.56 on December 1, 1998 showing a variation
of 159.39 points (Table 16 to 20).
The volatility, however, was marginally higher
for December compared to the previous month. The magnitude of Sensex volatility
had declined from 5.26 per cent in June to 1.93 per cent in October. It
rose to 2.6 per cent in November 1998 and further to 2.85 per cent in December
1998. The Natex, and S&P CNX Nifty also witnessed increased volatility
compared to the previous months but CNX Junior Nifty showed highest volatility
during December 1998.
Chart 5: Movement of Major Indices
Ratio Analysis (Price Earning Ratio)
| P/E Ratio |
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
| <5 |
|
|
|
| >5 and <10 |
|
|
|
| >10 |
|
|
|
Price earning (P/E) ratio of Sensex and that
of Natex during the month under review rose from 11.01 as on December 1,1998
to 12.30 on December 30,1998 but declined to 12.08 on the close of the
month. The BSE 100 PE ratio moved up from 9.06 to 10.08 before declining
to 9.89 as on December 31,1998. The price to book value of Sensex was 2.05
in December 1998. However, the price to book value ratio showed rising
trend which stood at 2.24 as on December 31, 1998. Similar trend is reflected
in the movement of Natex implying reversal of discount to book value trend.
Chart 4: Volatility of Major Indices
| Month | Sensex | Natex | S&P CNX Nifty | CNX Junior Nifty |
| Jan-98 |
4.83
|
4.74
|
4.67
|
4.02
|
| Feb-98 |
2.62
|
2.70
|
2.97
|
3.98
|
| Mar-98 |
2.30
|
2.60
|
2.02
|
4.03
|
| Apr-98 |
2.17
|
2.36
|
1.96
|
6.04
|
| May-98 |
3.24
|
2.93
|
3.09
|
2.93
|
| June-98 |
5.26
|
5.92
|
5.11
|
7.72
|
| July-98 |
3.45
|
3.25
|
3.12
|
3.89
|
| August-98 |
2.66
|
2.26
|
2.57
|
1.84
|
| Sept-98 |
3.21
|
2.91
|
3.10
|
2.16
|
| Oct-98 |
1.93
|
1.89
|
1.81
|
2.54
|
| Nov-98 |
2.60
|
2.48
|
2.58
|
1.98
|
| Dec-98 |
2.85
|
2.93
|
2.69
|
3.10
|
| Date |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1/12/98 |
2803.73
|
2822.21
|
2790.32
|
2804.03
|
11.09
|
2.05
|
2.05
|
| 2/12/98 |
2819.63
|
2833.91
|
2804.52
|
2816.59
|
11.14
|
2.06
|
2.04
|
| 3/12/98 |
2814.93
|
2820.93
|
2796.22
|
2804.46
|
11.09
|
2.05
|
2.05
|
| 4/12/98 |
2804.87
|
2849.82
|
2791.98
|
2849.82
|
11.27
|
2.09
|
2.02
|
| 7/12/98 |
2851.45
|
2922.28
|
2851.45
|
2921.80
|
11.56
|
2.14
|
1.97
|
| 8/12/98 |
2927.95
|
2945.64
|
2900.20
|
2945.64
|
11.65
|
2.16
|
1.95
|
| 9/12/98 |
2957.31
|
2979.51
|
2946.23
|
2950.21
|
11.67
|
2.16
|
1.95
|
| 10/12/98 |
2972.83
|
2987.64
|
2965.45
|
2979.60
|
11.78
|
2.18
|
1.93
|
| 11/12/98 |
3001.94
|
3019.81
|
2987.72
|
3002.54
|
11.88
|
2.20
|
1.92
|
| 14/12/98 |
3013.58
|
3029.15
|
2982.21
|
2990.44
|
11.83
|
2.19
|
1.91
|
| 15/12/98 |
2968.39
|
2974.08
|
2926.36
|
2927.48
|
11.58
|
2.14
|
1.95
|
| 16/12/98 |
2906.47
|
2936.92
|
2887.31
|
2936.92
|
11.61
|
2.15
|
1.95
|
| 17/12/98 |
2884.65
|
2919.47
|
2855.10
|
2864.44
|
11.33
|
2.10
|
1.99
|
| 18/12/98 |
2875.91
|
2890.30
|
2850.48
|
2875.09
|
11.37
|
2.10
|
1.99
|
| 21/12/98 |
2921.27
|
2977.03
|
2921.27
|
2973.37
|
11.76
|
2.18
|
1.92
|
| 22/12/98 |
2984.80
|
2988.46
|
2949.34
|
2976.58
|
11.77
|
2.18
|
1.92
|
| 23/12/98 |
2987.31
|
3016.91
|
2961.73
|
2962.50
|
11.72
|
2.17
|
1.93
|
| 24/12/98 |
2953.55
|
2974.66
|
2942.02
|
2963.45
|
11.72
|
2.17
|
1.93
|
| 28/12/98 |
3007.68
|
3068.14
|
3007.68
|
3054.73
|
12.08
|
2.24
|
1.87
|
| 29/12/98 |
3041.74
|
3066.60
|
3014.61
|
3046.29
|
12.05
|
2.23
|
1.88
|
| 30/12/98 |
3074.44
|
3118.59
|
3072.61
|
3110.33
|
12.30
|
2.28
|
1.84
|
| 31/12/98 |
3107.73
|
3116.34
|
3053.03
|
3055.41
|
12.08
|
2.24
|
1.87
|
| Date |
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Close
|
PE Ratio
|
PB Ratio
|
Yield (%)
|
| 1/12/98 |
1251.58
|
1259.52
|
1245.72
|
1250.17
|
9.06
|
1.18
|
2.84
|
| 2/12/98 |
1256.46
|
1262.71
|
1250.76
|
1255.88
|
9.11
|
1.18
|
2.83
|
| 3/12/98 |
1255.40
|
1258.58
|
1247.60
|
1250.33
|
9.07
|
1.18
|
2.84
|
| 4/12/98 |
1250.51
|
1267.73
|
1244.86
|
1266.49
|
9.18
|
1.19
|
2.81
|
| 7/12/98 |
1267.09
|
1298.74
|
1267.09
|
1298.71
|
9.42
|
1.22
|
2.74
|
| 8/12/98 |
1300.55
|
1307.89
|
1289.24
|
1307.89
|
9.48
|
1.23
|
2.72
|
| 9/12/98 |
1312.87
|
1320.06
|
1306.55
|
1308.11
|
9.49
|
1.23
|
2.72
|
| 10/12/98 |
1315.89
|
1322.14
|
1313.25
|
1318.93
|
9.57
|
1.24
|
2.69
|
| 11/12/98 |
1327.41
|
1334.68
|
1321.08
|
1327.68
|
9.63
|
1.25
|
2.68
|
| 14/12/98 |
1332.94
|
1340.50
|
1319.64
|
1322.79
|
9.59
|
1.24
|
2.65
|
| 15/12/98 |
1314.44
|
1316.25
|
1294.65
|
1294.89
|
9.39
|
1.22
|
2.71
|
| 16/12/98 |
1287.26
|
1300.36
|
1279.35
|
1300.36
|
9.43
|
1.22
|
2.70
|
| 17/12/98 |
1277.61
|
1292.48
|
1264.09
|
1267.86
|
9.19
|
1.19
|
2.77
|
| 18/12/98 |
1273.13
|
1279.73
|
1263.54
|
1273.17
|
9.28
|
1.20
|
2.74
|
| 21/12/98 |
1292.08
|
1317.27
|
1292.08
|
1316.50
|
9.60
|
1.24
|
2.65
|
| 22/12/98 |
1321.13
|
1322.50
|
1305.49
|
1317.01
|
9.60
|
1.24
|
2.64
|
| 23/12/98 |
1321.97
|
1334.73
|
1313.75
|
1314.04
|
9.57
|
1.23
|
2.65
|
| 24/12/98 |
1310.52
|
1318.31
|
1306.06
|
1314.05
|
9.58
|
1.23
|
2.65
|
| 28/12/98 |
1331.55
|
1362.01
|
1331.55
|
1356.92
|
9.89
|
1.27
|
2.57
|
| 29/12/98 |
1352.16
|
1362.75
|
1340.36
|
1354.69
|
9.87
|
1.27
|
2.57
|
| 30/12/98 |
1367.49
|
1387.90
|
1367.00
|
1384.87
|
10.08
|
1.30
|
2.52
|
| 31/12/98 |
1385.12
|
1387.38
|
1357.56
|
1359.03
|
9.89
|
1.28
|
2.56
|
| Date |
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Close
|
Variation(%) |
| 1/12/98 |
816.55
|
820.85
|
812.25
|
816.65
|
1.06
|
| 2/12/98 |
820.35
|
826.05
|
817.35
|
821.15
|
1.06
|
| 3/12/98 |
821.30
|
822.50
|
814.50
|
817.05
|
0.98
|
| 4/12/98 |
816.15
|
828.35
|
813.10
|
828.35
|
1.88
|
| 7/12/98 |
829.75
|
846.00
|
828.20
|
845.15
|
2.15
|
| 8/12/98 |
844.95
|
853.85
|
840.50
|
853.00
|
1.59
|
| 9/12/98 |
855.95
|
864.70
|
855.10
|
856.55
|
1.12
|
| 10/12/98 |
858.60
|
865.80
|
858.50
|
864.40
|
0.85
|
| 11/12/98 |
867.15
|
874.20
|
865.70
|
870.00
|
0.98
|
| 14/12/98 |
871.65
|
874.75
|
861.95
|
863.60
|
1.49
|
| 15/12/98 |
861.00
|
861.10
|
844.55
|
845.05
|
1.96
|
| 16/12/98 |
844.65
|
851.55
|
836.85
|
851.55
|
1.76
|
| 17/12/98 |
835.45
|
845.10
|
827.90
|
830.25
|
2.08
|
| 18/12/98 |
830.30
|
838.80
|
827.30
|
835.20
|
1.39
|
| 21/12/98 |
845.60
|
859.55
|
845.25
|
856.40
|
1.69
|
| 22/12/98 |
864.55
|
864.90
|
851.35
|
857.30
|
1.59
|
| 23/12/98 |
866.25
|
874.65
|
858.70
|
858.70
|
1.86
|
| 24/12/98 |
856.30
|
863.50
|
854.75
|
861.10
|
1.02
|
| 28/12/98 |
869.75
|
882.70
|
866.25
|
879.85
|
1.90
|
| 29/12/98 |
876.90
|
881.25
|
867.80
|
872.65
|
1.55
|
| 30/12/98 |
887.40
|
903.85
|
887.00
|
899.98
|
1.90
|
| 31/12/98 |
900.55
|
902.90
|
884.25
|
884.25
|
2.11
|
| Date |
Open
|
High
|
Low
|
Close
|
H-L Variation(%)
|
| 1/12/98 |
1379.35
|
1385.25
|
1373.45
|
1376.55
|
0.86
|
| 2/12/98 |
1382.00
|
1393.20
|
1382.00
|
1389.30
|
0.81
|
| 3/12/98 |
1390.80
|
1394.55
|
1382.45
|
1384.95
|
0.88
|
| 4/12/98 |
1384.40
|
1395.55
|
1382.40
|
1395.30
|
0.95
|
| 7/12/98 |
1396.45
|
1426.05
|
1396.30
|
1425.90
|
2.13
|
| 8/12/98 |
1425.45
|
1434.20
|
1413.70
|
1431.80
|
1.45
|
| 9/12/98 |
1434.35
|
1440.80
|
1428.20
|
1428.35
|
0.88
|
| 10/12/98 |
1430.95
|
1436.85
|
1424.60
|
1427.85
|
0.86
|
| 11/12/98 |
1428.30
|
1439.10
|
1428.05
|
1437.65
|
0.77
|
| 14/12/98 |
1439.05
|
1445.40
|
1403.75
|
1433.60
|
2.97
|
| 15/12/98 |
1432.70
|
1432.90
|
1408.35
|
1413.65
|
1.74
|
| 16/12/98 |
1414.85
|
1423.25
|
1401.15
|
1423.25
|
1.58
|
| 17/12/98 |
1403.45
|
1420.75
|
1395.95
|
1397.85
|
1.78
|
| 18/12/98 |
1398.05
|
1414.10
|
1394.65
|
1413.40
|
1.39
|
| 21/12/98 |
1420.45
|
1458.65
|
1420.45
|
1458.25
|
2.69
|
| 22/12/98 |
1459.70
|
1460.65
|
1440.30
|
1448.00
|
1.41
|
| 23/12/98 |
1458.50
|
1474.15
|
1456.85
|
1458.20
|
1.19
|
| 24/12/98 |
1457.90
|
1462.70
|
1454.05
|
1460.70
|
0.59
|
| 28/12/98 |
1466.50
|
1497.95
|
1466.50
|
1496.70
|
2.14
|
| c29/12/98 |
1492.70
|
1503.75
|
1487.80
|
1493.65
|
1.07
|
| 30/12/98 |
1505.80
|
1537.25
|
1505.65
|
1535.95
|
2.10
|
| 31/12/98 |
1544.80
|
1549.50
|
1518.85
|
1519.00
|
2.02
|
Deliveries and
Turnover
|
|
|
||||||
| Date |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1/12/98 |
924.88
|
54.35
|
2.00
|
0.52
|
5.83
|
987.59
|
1240.03
|
| 2/12/98 |
785.47
|
46.01
|
2.55
|
0.31
|
9.19
|
843.53
|
1047.27
|
| 3/12/98 |
686.32
|
30.54
|
3.11
|
0.44
|
3.49
|
657.91
|
871.24
|
| 4/12/98 |
981.07
|
39.00
|
2.84
|
0.50
|
6.45
|
1029.87
|
1294.38
|
| 7/12/98 |
1032.67
|
30.41
|
2.87
|
0.32
|
6.54
|
1072.81
|
1260.13
|
| 8/12/98 |
1218.29
|
44.58
|
3.91
|
0.24
|
5.79
|
1272.81
|
1388.78
|
| 9/12/98 |
1235.03
|
34.47
|
3.99
|
0.17
|
4.04
|
1277.70
|
1538.94
|
| 10/12/98 |
796.22
|
34.38
|
2.02
|
0.90
|
0.93
|
834.45
|
1077.42
|
| 11/12/98 |
1001.63
|
39.73
|
3.21
|
0.38
|
3.66
|
1048.61
|
1338.25
|
| 14/12/98 |
1078.07
|
36.29
|
2.54
|
0.61
|
0.70
|
1118.21
|
1346.45
|
| 15/12/98 |
1079.30
|
24.81
|
2.92
|
0.20
|
5.22
|
1112.46
|
1622.85
|
| 16/12/98 |
1053.09
|
24.56
|
4.79
|
0.21
|
12.47
|
1095.12
|
1449.40
|
| 17/12/98 |
1323.11
|
24.22
|
5.64
|
0.31
|
1.20
|
1354.49
|
1834.81
|
| 18/12/98 |
1207.52
|
38.29
|
4.71
|
3.28
|
1.43
|
1255.23
|
1761.18
|
| 21/12/98 |
1245.93
|
49.81
|
8.38
|
0.67
|
1.66
|
1306.45
|
1771.69
|
| 22/12/98 |
1524.11
|
32.75
|
11.07
|
0.46
|
1.58
|
1569.97
|
1779.62
|
| 23/12/98 |
1363.02
|
55.28
|
11.28
|
6.16
|
3.46
|
1439.20
|
1778.40
|
| 24/12/98 |
1272.72
|
50.06
|
9.29
|
0.49
|
0.55
|
1133.11
|
1665.35
|
| 28/12/98 |
1406.95
|
52.97
|
6.78
|
0.24
|
0.21
|
1467.16
|
1989.83
|
| 29/12/98 |
1589.00
|
67.15
|
7.98
|
0.32
|
2.61
|
1667.92
|
2023.54
|
| 30/12/98 |
1459.97
|
47.59
|
6.18
|
0.47
|
1.17
|
1515.39
|
2157.68
|
| 31/12/98 |
1353.45
|
50.02
|
4.12
|
0.41
|
1.49
|
1409.49
|
2201.19
|
The average daily turnover in December 1998
rose from 987.59 to 1469.4 at the Stock Exchange, Mumbai and from 1240.0
to 2209.19 at NSEIL. It shows an increase of 77.5 per cent at NSEIL and
a rise of 42.7 per cent at the Stock Exchange, Mumbai, over the month of
December1998.
(Table 20). The daily turnover at The Stock
Exchange, Mumbai reached a high of Rs 1667.92 crore on December 29, 1998
and a low of Rs.657.9 crore as on December 3, 1998. At NSEIL, a high of
Rs. 2201.2 crore was registered as on December 31, 1998 and a low of Rs.
871.24 crore on December 3, 1998 (Table 20). The increased turnover is
a sign of higher trading activity in the month of December 1998.
| Month |
|
Price to Book Ratio | Price
to Earnings Ratio
(in per cent) |
Average
Daily Turnover
(Rs in crore) |
Marketcapitalisation
(Rs in crore) |
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
| January |
3224.36
|
963.45
|
1401.38
|
2.21
|
1.46
|
12.79
|
11.34
|
1244
|
869.03
|
494224
|
| February |
3622.22
|
1060.75
|
1568.83
|
2.48
|
1.63
|
14.49
|
12.84
|
1189
|
868.25
|
554060
|
| March |
3892.75
|
1116.90
|
1697.14
|
2.68 | ||||||